The effects of China's development

Shanghai air 

I'm reading about Lester Brown's report "Learning from China: Why the Western Economic Model Will not Work for the World" and, as usual, trying to think about our planet.

Nuclear power is too risky, and oil is not enough. As for food, our oceans are overfished, farmland is lost to building bigger cities, and we just had a warning last night on NHK to save water. We are nearing the limits of Earth's capacity to support our current consumption patterns. Earth cannot provide America-like or Japan-like lifestyles for China's population. And what about - everyone else? Who will tell everyone: "Sorry, you cannot have what we have!"

Here are some numbers, if you prefer that. Today, per capita GNP in the US and Japan is about $38,000 annually, while China's per capita GNP is about $1,000. China seems to want to reach the same level, using the same strategies, making the same mistakes. By 2031, income per person for China's projected population of 1.45 billion would reach $38,000, according to Lester Brown, head of the Earth Policy Institute.

If the Chinese reach this income level in 2031, and choose to consume grain at the same annual rate as Americans on this income level do today, then grain consumption per person in China would climb from 291 kg today to the 935 kg needed to sustain a U.S.-style diet rich in meat, milk and eggs. Put another way, in 2031, China would consume 1,352 million tons of grain. Today China consumes about 382 million tons and is already importing from other countries.

Lester Brown explains it well: "This is equal to two-thirds of the entire 2004 world grain harvest..." and:

China is teaching us that we need a new economic model, one that is based not on fossil fuels but that instead harnesses renewable sources of energy, including wind power, hydropower, geothermal energy, solar cells, solar thermal power plants, and biofuels. In the search for new energy, wind meteorologists will replace petroleum geologists.

Photo from Energy Doctor